Which Party Will Win the 2026 Quebec General Election? · CAQ

Resolution rules

The 2026 Quebec general election, in which all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec will be contested, is scheduled for October 5, 2026. This market will settle in favor of the political party that secures the largest number of seats in the National Assembly as a result of that election. If a political party that is not listed as an option in this market secures the largest number of seats, all listed parties will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Quebec general election has not taken place by January 31, 2027, all listed parties will resolve to "No." If two or more parties finish with the same highest seat total, the market will resolve in favor of the party that received the greatest number of valid votes in the election. If that also ends in a tie, the market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. Resolution is determined exclusively by the total number of seats won by each named party. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the outcome remains uncertain or disputed, the official results published by Élections Québec will be used as the sole basis for resolution.