How it works
From first deposit to payout — four steps
Sign in and deposit
Sign in and you get your own wallet on-chain. Send USD₮0 on Arbitrum One to your wallet address — the money stays in your wallet, not an account of ours, and is ready to trade.
Go to my portfolioPick a market
Every market is a question with a clear outcome — “Which party will win the House in 2026?”. Each outcome has a price between 0¢ and 100¢: what traders are paying for it right now.
All marketsTake a position — Yes or No
Buy Yes if you think it will happen, No if you don't. Choose an amount and you see the fees, read from the smart contract at that moment, and your maximum payout before you confirm. If the fee can't be read, you can't confirm.
Market resolves — get paid
Once the outcome is decided, each winning contract pays out a full dollar and each losing one pays nothing. Bought Yes at 62¢ and called it right? You made 38¢ per contract. In open markets you can also sell early at the market price.
Every market resolves by its own rules — for elections, the official results — shown on its page before you trade.
Ready to take a position?
Prices move in real time — every dollar is an opinion.
PolitiMarket is a prediction market: a price instead of a poll. Every market is a political question, and its price is set by trading between participants, not by us.
What the price means
The price of a Yes share is a percentage from 0 to 100, reflecting what the market is willing to pay right now for a Yes answer. When more traders buy Yes, the price goes up; when they sell, it goes down. The No price is always the complement to 100, so the two sides together are always worth one full share.
It's a price, not a probability we're claiming. We show it as a number only, without words like "chance" or "likelihood", because the number is what the market says, not what we say.
Yes and No shares
Every market resolves to one of two outcomes. Shares on the winning side pay out in full and shares on the other side are worth zero. You can hold a share until resolution, and in open markets you can also exit a position early at the current market price, as long as there is someone on the other side of the trade.
Deposits and withdrawals
Trading happens in USD₮0, a dollar stablecoin, on the Arbitrum One network. Deposits and withdrawals are crypto only. To deposit, open Deposit and send USD₮0 on Arbitrum One to your own wallet address shown there. To withdraw, open Withdraw on your portfolio, paste the address you want to send to and the amount, review it and confirm. A withdrawal is an on-chain transfer: once sent it can't be reversed, so only send to an address that can receive USD₮0 on Arbitrum One.
Resolution
Every market has its own resolution rules, shown on the market page before you take a position. The market resolves by those rules alone, and the closing date on the page is the point after which no new trades open.
Fees
Before every trade you see its exact fees, as read from the smart contract at that moment. No fee is shown from a preset number, and if it can't be read, the trade can't be confirmed. What you see on the confirmation screen is what you pay.
Self-custody
Your balance and positions live in your own on-chain wallet, not in our database. The site reads them from the blockchain and displays them; it doesn't hold your money, doesn't keep balances of its own and can't move money on your behalf.
FAQ
Is the price the real chance that it happens?
No. The price is what traders in the market are willing to pay right now for a Yes share. It moves with every trade, and it is neither our forecast nor a poll. We show it as-is.
What are the seat map and the coalition game?
They cover Israel's Knesset election. The seat count shown for each party is a projection entered by our editorial team, and it is labeled "Editorial projection · Not a market price" everywhere it appears. It is not a market price and is not derived from one. When a party is linked to a market, the market price is shown next to it separately and labeled as a market price.
How much does it cost to trade?
Fees are read from the smart contract before every trade and shown on the confirmation screen. There is no fixed number to quote here, because the right number is the one read at the moment of the trade. If the read fails, the confirm button stays disabled.
Can I lose my entire stake?
Yes. Shares on the wrong side are worth zero at resolution. There is no guaranteed return and no refund guarantee, so only take a position with money you are prepared to lose.
Who decides how a market resolves?
Every market has its own resolution rules, shown on the market page before you take a position. The market resolves according to those rules. Read them before every trade.
Where is my money held?
In your own on-chain wallet. Your balance, positions and payouts are read from the blockchain, not from a database of ours. We don't hold your money and can't move it on your behalf.
How do I withdraw?
On your portfolio, choose Withdraw, paste the destination address and the amount (or Max), review and confirm. The USD₮0 is sent on Arbitrum One from your own wallet to that address. It is on-chain and can't be reversed, so only send to an address that can receive USD₮0 on Arbitrum One — funds sent to a wrong address are lost.
What happens when a market has no price?
A dash (—) is shown instead of a number. The site never makes up a price, never shows a default number and never guesses. If you come back later and the market has traded, the price will appear.
Legal
- You must be 18 or older to use the site.
- The site is available globally, but you may use it only where prediction markets are legal for you — checking your local law is your responsibility.
- Trading uses real money (USD₮0 on Arbitrum One) and you can lose everything you put into a market. Full terms: Terms of Use